Cascading Failure: The Roman Disaster at Adrianople AD 378

After an incredible amount of work, my latest history article Cascading Failure: The Roman Disaster at Adrianople AD 378 is finally up at Military History Online. The gist of the piece is that a failure cascade led to the Roman defeat; hence the title. That cascade can be arranged as follows:

1. The erroneous estimate of the Gothic forces led to …
2. The Roman decision to force march their troops to the Gothic horde’s location, which …
3. Left the Roman troops thirsty, hungry and tired once they arrived at the battlefield, which …
4. Caused the Emperor Valens to agree to delay the start of hostilities by negotiating with the Gothic Chieftain Fritigern, which …
5. Caused Valens to summon his senior officers to assist with the negotiations, which …
6. Left the fighting troops without senior leadership immediately available, which …
7. Allowed the right wing Roman cavalry, operating without senior officers, to “attack” before the Romans were ready for battle and while Valens was even negotiating a truce with no intention of attacking, which …
8. Caused the Roman defeat.

It's a very long piece, some of which is background on Roman politics and military organization in the late Empire, but the vast majority of which is focused on a close examination of the critical factors in this decisive battle of Western history.

1. The decision to attack;
2. The march to the battlefield;
3. The whereabouts of the senior officers; and
4. The “attack” of the right wing cavalry.

Like I said, it's very long, but I certainly enjoyed writing it. If you like Roman or ancient history, or even just want to learn more about it, check it out.